FIFA World Cup 2026, Group D, Matchday 2
Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, California | Friday, June 19, 2026 | 11:00 PM ET / 8:00 PM PT
Watch in Canada: TSN
Turkey and Paraguay meet in a game that already feels like a knockout match. Both teams opened Group D with defeats, and another setback would leave their path to the next round hanging by a thread.
The context is straightforward. The United States and Australia have already taken control of the group with opening wins, which means the margin for error has disappeared for everyone else. A draw would keep both sides alive on paper, but only a victory gives either team a realistic route forward.
Turkey need a sharp response
Turkey arrive in California carrying both expectation and frustration. Their return to the World Cup after a 24-year absence has added weight to every result, especially after their opening loss to Australia. That defeat was not just disappointing; it exposed a familiar problem for teams that dominate the ball but fail to turn pressure into goals.
According to the preview materials, Turkey controlled large stretches of their first match and still finished with 30 shots without scoring, a sign that the final pass and finishing touch were missing. Vincenzo Montella has enough attacking talent to change that picture, but the system has to become more decisive in the last third.
Arda Güler remains the clearest source of creativity, while Kenan Yıldız offers direct running and one-on-one threat. Hakan Çalhanoğlu gives the side structure, experience, and dead-ball quality, and that matters in a match where open play may be difficult to sustain. If Turkey can get early rhythm from midfield, they have the technical edge to spend long periods around Paraguay’s penalty area.
The concern is that talent alone does not solve tournament pressure. Turkey were beaten by Australia despite having more of the ball, and another slow start could turn a promising squad into an early casualty of the competition. For that reason, Montella’s side will likely play with greater urgency from the opening whistle.
Paraguay bring fight, but their margin is thin
Paraguay also come into the match under pressure after a heavy loss to the United States. Gustavo Alfaro’s team conceded four in that opener, and the scoreline made their defensive structure look far less secure than it did during qualifying.
That qualification campaign was demanding, and Paraguay handled it with resilience. They survived a difficult South American path and ended a 14-year wait to reach the World Cup again. That achievement reflects a team built on discipline, work rate, and the ability to stay in games long enough to frustrate stronger opponents.
Andrés Cubas is one of the most important pieces in that setup, bringing ball-winning and energy in midfield, while Julio Enciso offers the kind of attacking spark Paraguay need if they are going to threaten Turkey in transition. Miguel Almirón adds experience and movement, and Gustavo Gómez provides leadership at the back.
Still, Paraguay’s issue is not hard to see. Their attacking output in qualifying was limited, and their first match at this tournament did little to suggest a sudden burst of goals is coming. Alfaro’s best chance is to restore compactness, make the game slow and awkward, and trust that one sharp counterattack or set piece can change everything.
What decides the match
This game is likely to hinge on whether Turkey can convert possession into real danger. They should have more of the ball, but Paraguay will be happiest if the match becomes a physical, stop-start contest. That makes the first goal especially important.
If Turkey score first, the game should open in their favor because Paraguay will have to come out of their shell. If Paraguay strike first, Turkey could be forced into a rushed chase that plays into the South Americans’ hands. Either way, the team that keeps its shape under pressure will gain a major edge.
Set pieces may matter more than usual. Çalhanoğlu’s delivery can create chances from almost any dead-ball situation, and Turkey’s height gives them a natural target. Paraguay, meanwhile, have defenders such as Gustavo Gómez and Fabián Balbuena who are comfortable in the air and willing to absorb pressure for long stretches.
The wider pattern of the match is easy to picture: Turkey trying to build, Paraguay trying to break, and both teams knowing that caution is no longer enough. That tension should produce a competitive, uneven contest rather than a settled tactical chess match.
My lean is toward Turkey, mainly because they have more attacking variety and more incentive to play on the front foot after their opening defeat. Paraguay can absolutely make it uncomfortable, but their first-game collapse and limited scoring record make them the more vulnerable side when the match becomes stretched.
Prediction: Turkey 2, Paraguay 1
Turkey should find enough quality to edge it, most likely by scoring first and then surviving a tense finish. Paraguay can keep the match alive with their physical approach and counterattacking threat, but Turkey’s individual talent should be enough to keep their World Cup hopes intact.
Kickoff is set for 11:00 PM ET at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, with Canada coverage on TSN.