Can Morocco Block France’s Path to a Third World Cup Semi?

Canada, grab your poutine and settle in because the World Cup quarter-final in Boston on Thursday stings a little more for you. Morocco, the team that ended your tournament dreams with a 3-0 victory, now faces France. Despite onlylanding four shots on target, the Atlas Lions defeated co-hosts Canada ruthlessly in the last sixteen. They weathered Canada’s first-half storm before Azzedine Ounahi and Soufiane Rahimi sealed the win in the second half. Now, Morocco stands between France and a semifinal berth.

This matchup is personal for both sides, serving as a rematch of their 2022 FIFA World Cup semifinal where France won 2-0. Morocco aims to avenge that loss while arriving red-hot, unbeaten in ten matches since the AFCON final. France, however, remains the tournament favorite with twelve consecutive unbeaten competitive matches and seven straight wins. An eighth win would make them the third nation ever to reach three consecutive World Cup semifinals.

Kylian Mbappé is the standout factor, scoring seven goals in this tournament and becoming one of only two players to score seven or more in two separate World Cups alongside Lionel Messi. His penalty against Paraguay secured France’s victory in the round of 16. Morocco faces a significant challenge as striker Ismael Saibari is a major doubt due to a hamstring injury from the Canada match, blunting their attack considerably.

Bookmakers view France as heavy favorites on the moneyline, listing Morocco as sizeable underdogs with the draw far behind. Betting markets suggest a lower-scoring game with a total set around two and a half goals.

Three key factors will determine the outcome:

1. Mbappé’s ability to find the key and break down Morocco’s deep defense.
2. Morocco’s attack suffering from Saibari’s injury absence and lack of depth.
3. France’s temper control as they aim for their third consecutive semifinal.

A table comparing their recent tournament records highlights the disparity:

Reading the tea leaves, a 1-0 or 2-0 France win looks like the smart prediction. Thirteen of France’s last sixteen wins came by two-plus goal margins, while seven of Morocco’s last nine World Cup defeats came by a single goal. France will likely control the tempo, Morocco will defend deep and dangerous, and Mbappé will eventually find the opening.

However, if one team is built to spoil a favorite’s party, it is this Moroccan side. Just ask Canada. The prediction is France 2, Morocco 0, though don’t be shocked if the Atlas Lions drag it to penalties and break hearts along the way.